Article of interest: Association of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score With Mortality in Emergency General Surgery Patients

Havens JM, Columbus AB, Olufajo OA, Askari R, Salim A, Christopher KB. Association of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score With Mortality in Emergency General Surgery Patients. JAMA Surg. 2016 Jul 20;151(7):e160789. doi: 10.1001/jamasurg.2016.0789.

Results: A total of 13 552 EGS patients received critical care; of these, 707 (5%) (mean [SD] age at hospital admission, 56.6 [14.2] years; 64% male; 79% white) had CLD and data to determine MELD score at ICU admission. The median MELD score was 14 (interquartile range, 10-20). Overall 90-day mortality was 30.1%. The adjusted odds ratio of 90-day mortality for each 10-point increase in MELD score was 1.63 (95% CI, 1.34-1.98). A decrease in MELD score of more than 3 in the 48 hours following ICU admission was associated with a 2.2-fold decrease in 90-day mortality (odds ratio = 0.46; 95% CI, 0.22-0.98).

Conclusions and relevance: In this study, MELD score was associated with 90-day mortality following EGS in patients with CLD. The MELD score can be used as a prognostic factor in this patient population and should be used in preoperative risk prediction models and when counseling EGS patients on the risks and benefits of operative intervention.

Commentary: Zarrinpar A. Mind MELD or Ignore It at Your Peril. JAMA Surg. 2016 Jul 20;151(7):e160839. doi: 10.1001/jamasurg.2016.0839.

Article of interest: Assessment of morbidity and mortality after esophagectomy using a modified frailty index

Hodari A, et al. Assessment of morbidity and mortality after esophagectomy using a modified frailty index. Ann Thorac Surg. 2013 Oct;96(4):1240-1245.

Full-text for Emory users.

Results: A total of 2,095 patients were included in the analysis. Higher frailty scores were associated with a statistically significant increase in morbidity and mortality. A frailty score of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 had associated morbidity rates of 17.9% (142 of 795 patients), 25.1% (178 of 710 patients), 31.4% (126 of 401 patients), 34.4% (48 of 140 patients), 44.4% (16 of 36 patients), and 61.5% (8 of 13 patients), respectively. A frailty score of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 had associated mortality rates of 1.8% (14 of 795 patients), 3.8% (27 of 710 patients), 4% (16 of 401 patients), 7.1% (10 of 140 patients), 8.3% (3 of 36 patients), and 23.1% (3 of 13 patients), respectively. When using multivariate logistic regression for mortality comparing age, functional status, prealbumin, emergency surgery, wound class, American Society of Anesthesiologists score, and sex, only age and frailty were statistically significant. The odds ratio was 31.84 for frailty (p = 0.015) and 1.05 (p = 0.001) for age.

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